22 November 2010
Fifteen Movies
21 November 2010
Stop Projecting Your Euro Neurosis, Revisited
But in Britain the vast inflation of Ireland's public sector wage bill, the fecklessness of its bankers who allowed lending to balloon to four times Irish GDP, largely on the expectation of never-ending property price increases, and the grubby corruption of its political elite are all pushed to one side. Voices on right and left insist that what is happening in Ireland is the fault of the EU and the euro. If Irish interest rates could have been a fraction higher, they argue, like those in Britain, Ireland would not have had a property and credit boom.The British narrative ignores Ireland's insane public sector pay bill, the fact that the economy had become addictively dependent on the construction industry and rising property prices, reckless bankers, and corruption, cowardice, and a lack of imagination among the governing parties and the opposition which lacked the nerve to challenge them on economic grounds. It blames everything on Ireland's membership of the Euro and sees the events of the last week as a grand Franco-German plan to take over Ireland.
Nonsense, of course, not least because Ireland's no prize nowadays and because given her debt, Britain could quite easily wind up in as bad a situation:
A second financial crisis would confront Britain with Irish-style dilemmas despite the independence of the pound. We have proportionally more bank lending in relation to our GDP than even the Irish, some £7 trillion or five times GDP.Yes, Britain has worse debt levels than Ireland does, and it managed this without being 'trapped' in a catch-all interest zone, which is how the Eurozone keeps being scorned as. The Euro, as Hutton points out, isn't the problem here. It might, however, be part of the solution.
20 November 2010
I'm not sure the Pope has said anything new here...
The story relates to some extracts that have been leaked from Peter Seewald's forthcoming book-length interview with the Pope, his third such; I've read the other two, and their 1985 predecessor, The Ratzinger Report, where the then Cardinal Ratzinger was interviewed at length by Vittorio Messori.
In this interview the subject of AIDS in Africa inevitably comes up, with Seewald asking about the impact of Church policy on the crisis. The Pope's answer is being leapt on by an ignorant -- and it must be said, hopeful -- media as the Vatican having changed its official stance on condom use. Here's the relevant passage from the book:
PS: On the occasion of your trip to Africa in March 2009, the Vatican’s policy on AIDs once again became the target of media criticism.Twenty-five percent of all AIDs victims around the world today are treated in Catholic facilities. In some countries, such as Lesotho, for example, the statistic is 40 percent. In Africa you stated that the Church’s traditional teaching has proven to be the only sure way to stop the spread of HIV. Critics, including critics from the Church’s own ranks, object that it is madness to forbid a high-risk population to use condoms.B16: The media coverage completely ignored the rest of the trip to Africa on account of a single statement. Someone had asked me why the Catholic Church adopts an unrealistic and ineffective position on AIDs. At that point, I really felt that I was being provoked, because the Church does more than anyone else. And I stand by that claim. Because she is the only institution that assists people up close and concretely, with prevention, education, help, counsel, and accompaniment. And because she is second to none in treating so many AIDs victims, especially children with AIDs.
I had the chance to visit one of these wards and to speak with the patients. That was the real answer: The Church does more than anyone else, because she does not speak from the tribunal of the newspapers, but helps her brothers and sisters where they are actually suffering. In my remarks I was not making a general statement about the condom issue, but merely said, and this is what caused such great offense, that we cannot solve the problem by distributing condoms. Much more needs to be done. We must stand close to the people, we must guide and help them; and we must do this both before and after they contract the disease.
As a matter of fact, you know, people can get condoms when they want them anyway. But this just goes to show that condoms alone do not resolve the question itself. More needs to happen. Meanwhile, the secular realm itself has developed the so-called ABC Theory: Abstinence-Be Faithful-Condom, where the condom is understood only as a last resort, when the other two points fail to work. This means that the sheer fixation on the condom implies a banalization of sexuality, which, after all, is precisely the dangerous source of the attitude of no longer seeing sexuality as the expression of love, but only a sort of drug that people administer to themselves. This is why the fight against the banalization of sexuality is also a part of the struggle to ensure that sexuality is treated as a positive value and to enable it to have a positive effect on the whole of man’s being.
There may be a basis in the case of some individuals, as perhaps when a male prostitute uses a condom, where this can be a first step in the direction of a moralization, a first assumption of responsibility, on the way toward recovering an awareness that not everything is allowed and that one cannot do whatever one wants. But it is not really the way to deal with the evil of HIV infection. That can really lie only in a humanization of sexuality.
PS: Are you saying, then, that the Catholic Church is actually not opposed in principle to the use of condoms?
B16: She of course does not regard it as a real or moral solution, but, in this or that case, there can be nonetheless, in the intention of reducing the risk of infection, a first step in a movement toward a different way, a more human way, of living sexuality.
The first thing to note about this is that Benedict wasn't teaching here as 'The Pope'; this shouldn't be construed as an official stance of any sort. Rather it is a personal opinion, not to be understood as the Vatican's formal position, let alone an infallible doctrinal teaching. Elsewhere in the interview, Benedict is quite frank about the fact that popes can be wrong, and indeed he felt the need to preface his recent Jesus of Nazareth with the caveat that the book represents his personal thoughts, and shouldn't be misunderstood as something anyway binding on Catholics.
Secondly, what is he actually saying? He's saying that condoms aren't a practical solution to the problem, a position for which there certainly seems to be scientific support. He's also saying that condoms aren't a moral solution to the problem, in that they represent a banalization of sexuality; while you might disagree with that, it's certainly orthodox Church teaching. And finally he's saying that in cases where people are already ignoring of disobeying Church teaching, then use of condoms might represent a step in the right direction, a realisation that actions can have consequences and an attempt to limit harm.
This is commentary, not guidance. And it's not particularly earth-shaking guidance, either. Back in September I pointed out to friends that
'[...] the Pope has never said that condoms shouldn't be used when having sex outside of marriage. Not a word. All of his comments on the matter have concerned contraception within marriage. Why? Well, the Church regards sex as being exclusively for marriage - it is the act of marital communion, for want of a better way of putting it - and regards all extramarital sex as intrinsically wrong. Whether you agree with that is, in this context, neither here nor there. What matters is that the Church isn't in the business of advising people on how to mitigate things it regards as sins. It says, with God, "thou shalt not commit adultery" It doesn't say, "we'd rather you didn't commit adultery, but if you must cheat on your wife with some random skank, for whatever reason, well, it might be prudent to wear one of these things."'
Is he saying now that it would be prudent? As a theologian or an ordinary Catholic expressing his opinion, he is certainly saying that it might be better, that it might represent a step in the right direction. He's not saying that it would, just that it might. But as the Pope, the successor to Peter and custodian of the keys to the kingdom, charged with feeding and tending Jesus' flock, no, he's by no means teaching that condoms should be used. All he's saying is that for people who are inclined to ignore him anyway, a decision to use a condom could indicate a growing sense of moral responsibility.
Jimmy Akin sensibly analyses the interview fragment, and how it's been and is being presented, here.
19 November 2010
One Crisis - Two Narratives
The Irish media, on the other hand, realises the Euro really isn't the problem, and the British crowing about it is far more reflective of Britain's issues than Ireland's. As Jason O'Mahony says in this superbly cutting post:
The Euro is not the source of our problems. Our exports continue to perform strongly. Please stop trying to project your Euro neurosis onto us. The Euro has flaws, but it is still where we need to be. We need to be competitive by cutting our costs, which we are doing, not by some Harold Wilson style three card trick.
But if our estimates suggest anything, it is that the ultimate losses, and the ultimate burden on the Irish government, will be quite a bit lower than estimated by NAMA, which is likely to make money on its investments. Correspondingly, the government will significantly have over-capitalised the banks, perhaps by tens of billions of Euros.
Certainly, the situation is far more complex than us simply being trapped in the wrong currency. GS's analysis is summed up by saying that the fiscal crisis is a consequence rather than a cause of our collapse in output. This should make sense to anyone who's not been wearing ideological blinkers when watching how Ireland's economy has performed over the last twelve years or so; the fact that George Osborne was singing its praises at a time when the country was obviously an inflated bubble speaks volumes about his understanding of such matters, or at least it did four years ago; perhaps he's learned.
This isn't a matter of the wisdom that comes with hindsight; for years Garret Fitzgerald has been grumbling about how our national expenditure was too high while we simply weren't producing things and were dependent on construction to keep the wheels turning, Fintan O'Toole was pointing to the state's infatuation with a neo-liberal ideology that was pouring money into people's pockets and building nothing for when the good times ended, and David McWilliams memorably pointing out four years ago what the Ghost Estates around the country were destined to mean. I had huge arguments with friends before the 2002 and 2007 elections, with them happily voting for the status quo despite the writing being on the wall, or at least in the mainstream media, if they could be bothered to look.
Yes, it's true that easy access to cheap credit from German banks has played an enormous part in this whole farce, but this is hardly a matter of us being in the Eurozone. We have a young population that grew up with nothing and wanted to have everything; of course German banks, overloaded with pensioners' savings, wanted to lend to us. They'd lend to anyone! Look at Britain, with its national debt of more than £950 billion and its total personal debt of almost £1,500 billion! There's also the fact that not all of our debt has come from Eurozone countries -- our single largest creditor, to whom we owe a fifth of our debt, is the UK, with our third- and sixth-largest creditors being the United States and Japan. No, this problem wasn't caused by our using the same currency as our neighbours.
Inflation has been a huge problem in Ireland since the mid-1990s. I visited Berlin in 1996 and was struck by how expensive it was, and again five years later, before the physical adoption of the Euro as a real currency, and was amazed by how cheap it was. It hadn't changed; Ireland had. Inflation was rife, and property prices were rising, and rent was rising, and rather than bring in rent controls or otherwise try to cool the property market, the government instead decided to allow incomes to rise too, keeping taxes low and in 2002 raising all public servants' pay in accordance with a national benchmarking agreement.
More money was poured into the economy, driving labour costs up in the private sector and raising inflation in general, making us less competitive than we had been, all at a time when the hi-tech sector was feeling the aftershocks of the Dot.com Bubble bursting, and tourism was trying to cope with the double-whammy of the restrictions imposed by the Foot and Mouth Crisis and the of the collapse in American tourism following 9/11. Output declined, and the only thing keeping the economy going was the frenzy of construction, all funded by cheap credit, gambled on the new buildings being sold for a huge profit.
The buyers weren't there, though, as the credit began to dry up, and when the global banking system went into a tizz, the Irish banks, lightly regulated for far too long, turned out to be hugely overstretched. The government -- perhaps pressured by our partners in Britain and the Mainland who feared their own banks mightn't get their money back -- guaranteed to cover the banks, no matter what. This calmed things down, and we won plaudits internationally as teeth were gritted, belts were tightened, and costs were cut. It didn't work though, not least because it turned out that the banks had massively played down just how reckless they'd been and how overstretched they were.
This made it look increasingly likely that the bank guarantee would sink us, that it would, in hindsight, turn out to be an enormous mistake, though until a couple of months ago it was a mistake that could have been solved, in a sense, by the government changing the terms of the guarantee, pointing out that it had been misled about the scale of the banks' problems. The opportunity wasn't taken, though, and the government stuck to its guns, determined for whatever reason to keep to the letter of its word, thereby ensuring that people and institutions who had gambled with risky loans to Irish banks would get all their money back. And we all know what that's brought us to over the last fortnight.
It's difficult to tell, of course, whether the government is bluffing in saying it doesn't need a bail-out; there is a serious argument that it's more in the interests of the likes of Britain, Germany, and France than it is for us to accept their money -- and on their terms -- and that this is about preserving their banking systems and the European economic system as a whole. Of course, if that were destroyed, we'd be lost anyway...
So, are we doomed? The government and Goldman Sachs don't think so, and if it's just a matter of regaining confidence and keeping to our current austere path then we might be okay. Have we lost our sovereignty? I don't know. Did the UK lose its sovereignty when it called in the IMF back in 1976? If it did, did it get it back? Mightn't we do likewise?
Whatever way we look at it, those buffoons who babble about Ireland rejoining Sterling or even the United Kingdom, no matter how tongue-in-cheek their suggestions are, really need to calm down.